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Each generation hopes their children will have Certain trends threaten their future |
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This is a collection of easy-to-understand picture-reports to increase awareness of certain threats to the economic future & freedom of families and their children, compared to the past - - on family income, debt, savings, government spending, education quality, social security, regulations, taxes, inflation, energy, foreign trade and exchange, voter turnout, trust, national security, and health care. There are so many great & positive things about our beloved The author, a concerned grandfather, was assisted by economists, parents, teachers and students - to help families and youth expand awareness of certain problem trends - - and become better prepared to enhance their future, and their nation's. Many visitors call this the 'mother' of resource centers of economic & education issues and trends every family and student should understand about today, compared to the past. Regularly updated as a free public service. (you may wish to save this page to your favorites) Dr. Milton Friedman, Nobel Prize winner for excellence in economics wrote > "I certainly commend you for the Grandfather Economic Report, and for the imaginative way in which you have displayed data highly relevant to very important issues. I am impressed. The analyses are excellent. Your objective is one I fully endorse." “History often repeats itself.” – Long term trends via decades of historic data tell a story where important issues stand today compared to the past. Such information may provide a glimpse to the future and assist future researchers. “Empires rise and fall.” – For 300 years Knowledge is Power, |
The 4 Core Problems: 1. Government Dominance 2. Education Quality 3. Debt Dependence 4. Dependence on Foreigners
#1 Core Problem: INCREASED GOVERNMENT-DOMINANCE OF OUR ECONOMY
This chart shows how combined spending by federal, state and local government increased faster than the economy - - reducing the share of the economy previously assigned to the pure private sector.
The red bars in this chart show the upward march of combined federal, state & local government spending growing 4 times faster than the economy - - from a 12% share to a 45% share today.
The blue bars in the chart show the reciprocal downward slide of the private sector's share of the economy, as it lost 33 points of its prior share of the economy (from an 88% share down to a 55% share) - - due to government spending growth.
And, more and more of that increased spending is funded by debt, more and more of which requires lending by foreign institutions or simply printing money out of thin air.
Unless the government share of the economy is significantly reduced to at least the 1947 ratios, sometime in the future there may occur major economic and/or national security impacts.
The left chart shows the increasing long-term trend of the share of the economy consumed by government spending (red line), compared to the reciprocal shrinkage of the private sector's share of the economy (blue line). Note the red line surge most recently to a new time record.
QUESTION: HOW BIG SHOULD GOVERNMENT BE - - recognizing our founding forefathers intended limited government?? (as specifically defined by Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution )
Was 12% of the economy enough - - or should government control more than today's 45% of the economy's national income??
(Many believe federal + state/local government should not exceed a 20% share of the economy, as shown in the middle bar. To reach that 20% share of the economy, government spending would need to be half of what it is - - or today's spending levels must not be allowed to rise, even considering inflation, until the economy's size has doubled - - or a combination of these: cuts and future freezes).
The Government sector has grown 4 times faster than the economy since I was young (see growth progression pictures and government spending report). Federal government spending increased 8 times faster than the economy and nearly all was consumptive social spending, a category not included by the framers of the Constitution as their 4-principal reasons for creating a federal government. And its not just Washington - - State & local government spending also increased much faster than economic growth and, since 1999, the number of their employees increased 40% faster than general population growth. And, debts exploded.
Government is not a 'free-lunch' - - citizens now work 3 times longer per year to pay all taxes, more than they pay for food, housing and clothing combined, reducing their freedom of choice. Government growth reduced the private sector from 7.3 times larger than the government sector when I was young to just a 1.5 ratio today, a huge drop.
Increased government (at all levels) not only consumes national income by its spending but their employees continually issue new regulations aimed at the reduced private sector, with the cost of compliance passed to the private sector as un-funded mandates to the tune of 15% of national income. Adding this 15% to the above graphic's 45% spending ratio increases government's control-share of the economy to 60% - - as per the regulation cost compliance report chapter.
America is a significantly more socialized, government spending-dependent nation (and less a free-market society) than before. But government does not create living standards - - it consumes national income. It's the private sector, not government, upon which we must depend for generating real long-term improvements of inflation-adjusted family incomes, which have barely moved in the past 2½ decades for 2-wage-earner families and have fallen for the traditional single-wage-earner family - - yet in the past most families were just fine with one wage-earner and nil debt. The private sector also depends on growing family savings with minimal household debt - instead of today's near zero savings and soaring debt.
A Warning. Federal, state and local government's expansion of its share of the economy not only reduced the free market private sector's share, it also reduced the private sector's economic surge potential previously available to win a major world war in the past. Government expansion occurred in areas not established by our founding forefather's number one reason for having a federal government, national security. We have been surprised before and may be again. (See National Security Report) Why are we passing on to our young an economy so much more dependent on government power in areas not envisioned as priorities by our nation's founders?
#2 Core Problem: POOR EDUCATION QUALITY PERFORMANCE:
Unacceptable education quality is well documented in the Education Report chapter. Two of many graphics from that chapter are shown here.
The chart at the left, shows a 71% decline of the U.S. education productivity index. This was caused by declining quality output, coupled with huge increases in (inflation-adjusted) spending per student - - compared to our past and to foreign competitors. It is apparent improved quality does not equate to more money thrown at the current system.
This red line on the chart should have been rising instead of falling, if young families and their children are to better compete in a more technologically demanding and competitive global economy than faced by their grandparents. And, the red line also should have been rising to justify the rapid increases in spending per student. But, it fell on both counts: more spending produced lower measurable quality.
Our GOAL should be such that all are in agreement that we produce the best quality in the world - - at the best cost - - bar none. We do not. Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman: "our school quality is the worst in 35 years."
The above productivity index chart stops at 1994 because the SAT was revised in 1995 concerning content and scoring (as if someone wanted to play down declining SAT scores by changing measurement criteria, instead of fixing poor quality. That's like having a baseball team produce more home-runs by moving in the fence).
However - - we know negative performance continues from such indicators as recent results of the international math & science exam competition (we came in near last), and colleges report a decline in quality of freshman and an explosion of remedial course costs to teach basics not learned in high school (60% of freshmen in California and 70% in Florida, as examples). Recently it was reported 75% of students failed to meet reading and writing standards. Dept. Education NAEP testing of 300,000 students in all 50 states in 2005 showed 82% of 12th graders not proficient in science, worse than 10 years earlier. The problem is not lack of money (by all indications there is too much money in that system) - - it's lack of management and accountability to parents, as expected with any monopolistic system.
While the above chart shows a quality productivity decline trend, the left chart shows an alarming status regarding comparative education quality with our international competitors - - yet we are faced with the largest global economic competitive challenge in our nation's history.
This chart shows recent data. Scoring of U.S. students is the red bar in the chart. On the 2003 International Math & Science Test Series (TMSS), the AP reported, "American high school 12th graders scored near the bottom of all nations - out-performing only Cyprus and South Africa. A comparison of the high-school elite - those who took physics and advanced math - showed Americans at or tied for the bottom. 'There is no excuse for this', said President Clinton to the National Council of Jewish Woman. Asian students, which consistently outscore American students, were not included in this latest study.
More recently, data released 4 December 2007 for the OECD PISA international test series in 2006 showed U.S.A. 15 year olds came in below average, at country ranking #29 in science and rank position #35 in math.
Studies on Textbooks and math teaching methods showed 85% of middle schoolers use science text books that are significantly error-laden and unacceptable - - and that honors high school science texts are no more difficult than an eighth grade reader 50 years ago. 200 mathematicians and scientists, including four Nobel Prize recipients and two winners of the prestigious Fields Medal math prize, deplored math teaching methods, saying they are 'horrifyingly short on basics.' The international organization, OECD, called "U.S. schools mediocre at best."
Were you surprised in August 2011 that education standards are to be lowered, as U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan warned that 82 percent of U.S. schools could be labeled failures next year if the No Child Left Behind Law is not changed. The goal of the 2001 law is to have every student proficient in math and reading by 2014. States have been required to bring more students up to the math and reading standards each year, based on tests. The step-by-step ramping up of standards has caused heartburn in states and most school districts, because more and more schools are labeled as failures as too few of their students meet testing goals. Response planned > waive standards. http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/duncan-states-will-get-school-testing-wa
How about grammar school performance? Answer: 'Two-thirds of U.S. fourth graders read below grade level and the weakest ones are falling further behind', according to the U.S. Education Department's reading ''Report Card'' released on 6 April 2001. Students reading at a proficient or advanced level from private schools performed 57% better than public schools. Time reports home schoolers scoring significantly above others.
Were you surprised in June 2004 when Achieve, Inc., a bipartisan, nonprofit education organization formed by governors and prominent business leaders, found that math and English tests for high school diplomas require only middle school knowledge, and those math tests measure only what students in other countries learn in the seventh grade?
Summary - - Public school quality output continues unacceptable, with less relative quality than prior generations at home and foreign students today. (this education issue is covered in graphical detail in the Grandfather Education Report - - with pictures.)
#3 Core Problem: INCREASED DEBT-DEPENDENCE
America's Total Debt (the red line) has reached $70 Trillion and, as seen in the chart, debt is increasing much faster than growth of the economy (the blue line).
America's Total Debt is here defined as the sum of all government (federal + state + local) debt plus debt of the private sector such as household debt, business debt and domestic financial sector debt. (this chart is adjusted for inflation).
Note the recent stoppage of the soaring debt (red line), as private sector debt deflated for the first time ever, assisted by record foreclosures and write-offs, while government debt soared since late 1970s, slowing down during financial crisis 2009-11, then accelarating again adding nearly an additional $10 trillion in the last 4.5 years, as the Federal Reserve tried to keep the 'debt-drug' going by acclerating federal government and business sector debt.
The left chart is one of the many in the America's Total Debt Report, proving our economy is becoming more and more debt-dependent compared to the past - - and, America's total debt is increasing more than two times faster than the entire economy's national income (can that continue?). Each dollar increase in debt produces less and less return in economic growth than ever before. (debt is like drugs, a druggie needs more and more doses to keep going.)
"I place economy among the first and most important of republican virtues, and debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared." -Thomas Jefferson -1816.
"We hear sad complaints sometimes of merciless creditors; whilst the acts of merciless debtors are passed over in silence." - William Frend, 1817
Although most know about high debt of the federal government, few recognize an even more dangerous trend > exploding private debt ratios of family households, business and the domestic financial sectors to the highest ratios in history, coupled with nil personal savings. 4 chapters cover debt, with pictures:
- America's Total Debt Report) - - on all debt in the USA - - of government (federal + state/local) plus household, business and domestic financial sectors - - now $70 trillion, an all-time record high.
- Federal Government Debt - - long-term trend graphics of federal government debt only (the sum of debt owed to the public in T-Bonds and T-Bills PLUS that owed trust funds because their surpluses were siphoned-off). Last year total federal debt reached a new record high of $19 trillion..
- Debt to Trust Funds - - Several years ago politicians loudly claimed they were running budget surpluses and paying-down debt, but do you know from where they got the money since they didn't reduce spending? Answer: they siphoned every penny from trust fund cash surpluses and spent it on other stuff, putting non-marketable IOUs in the trust funds to paper-over their tracks with no repayment plan by either political party. Debt went up, not down. The federal government now owes those trust funds a record $5.2 Trillion, including owed to the social security trust fund. Other trust article.
- Debt Summary Table - - one page summarizing all that debt.
#4 Core Problem: EXPLODING INTERNATIONAL INDEBTEDNESS
$8.4 TRILLION CUMULATIVE DEFICITS - international trade - -
In my younger years America was a creditor nation, meaning others owed us. No longer!! America is now the greatest international debtor in world history - and getting worse - - to the tune of $2.2 billion per day!!
This chart, from the chapter International Trade Report, gives the complete picture of America's increasing international indebtedness. It measures the U.S. cumulative international current account deficits over the past 28 years - - netting the sum of all imports and exports of goods and services, and investment flows between America and other nations.
The chart shows that cumulative deficits resulting in assets transferred to foreigners soared to $8.4 Trillion through 2010 - - which is $27,723 per man, woman and child in America.
In 2010 alone, $647 billion in additional merchandise deficits (another $2,142 per man, woman and child) were tacked on. Not a nice bequest from one generation to another.
As we purchase more from foreign nations than we produce for them, with zero domestic savings, we owe them the difference as cumulative current account debt. This chart shows America has exploded to record deep negative territory.
The chart shows that, whereas the USA used to run a balance of trade, meaning we were able to sell enough goods to other nations to pay for what we purchased from them, we are now running massive deficits. If a country runs a trade deficit, it means the country is borrowing from the rest of the world so that it can spend in excess of its production and its own savings. This means the USA is less economically competitive than before, and less independent.
For the period shown in this chart the USA debt to foreign interests totaled $8.4 trillion. Stated more simply, our children have $8.4 trillion fewer assets because we 'adults' consumed in the last 20 years in excess to that which we produced ourselves. The current account deficit represents money the U.S. has to borrow from overseas to finance spending and investment not covered by domestic production and savings.
In 1992 the U.S. current account deficit was $48 billion, which was about half the amount spent that year on our total Medicare program.
In 2007 the current account deficit was 2 times larger than the Medicare program (despite huge increases in Medicare spending) - - 34% more than all military spending, and 26% more than cost of the entire Social Security program.
In 2008 the U.S. had a total merchandise trade deficit of $821 billion, while Japan & Germany produced a cumulative trade surplus of $286 billion ($83+$203). That's a whopping $1 trillion worse relative trade performance for the U.S., in JUST ONE YEAR, with just 2 nations. Its not even counting that America's trade deficit with China surged 95% in the past 5 years, reaching $266 billion in 2008. Those are seriously, significant numbers.
This vividly shows how America is living beyond its means - - by consuming more production and savings of others than we produce to meet the needs of foreigners - - resulting in exploding debts payable to foreigners. The U.S. has become less competitive, despite claims of recent improved productivity (mostly realized only by a narrow part of the economy and primarily by revising how they measure productivity and inflation).
Keep in mind that foreign trade makes up 28% of the U.S. economy - - although this is mostly imports since there has been nil export growth in 25 years as the manufacturing base declined 62%.
About the past several years, it has been said: "If the US enjoys a 'new era' with higher "productivity" why has the trade deficit exploded to record levels? In an economy mostly based on "services" which very few foreigners will ever need from us, together with a shrinking manufacturing sector producing real goods, how can some so-called higher "productivity" generate the funds that will be needed to repay the debts owed foreigners who financed a trade deficit that consists mostly of "goods" produced by them and consumed by us?"
Additionally, we know from the Productivity Report chapter that much of our recent so-called productivity 'increase' came from changing how productivity and inflation (see Inflation Report) are measured and reported. Just as revising how one measures the SAT exam to pump-up the data is laid bare by how poorly our kids perform on international math exams - - so, also, is our so-called 'productivity' improvements laid bare by our disastrous trade performance.
This situation is so serious that Congress recently established the U.S. Trade Deficit Commission. Its report states the trade deficit is not only not sustainable but is danger to the nation and living standards.
Since this trend has not been corrected it spells dangerous challenges to the U.S. dollar, as a former 'king' of world reserve currencies as covered in the Foreign Exchange Report - and to American living standards. Said Dr. Allan Greenspan: "We cannot depend on imported capital, that is, a current account deficit, to offset low domestic saving indefinitely." Foreigners now own more and more of America - - about $8 trillion of U.S. financial assets, including 13% of all stocks and 24% of corporate bonds.. The Federal Government Debt Report shows they also own 49% of U.S. government Treasury bonds & notes and 14% of U.S. government agency debt (household mortgages). Additionally, they own real estate and factories. We should not be mad at foreign interests. We are the ones consuming beyond our own production, creating unprecedented debts and trade deficits.
Long-term trends of exploding deficits in our nation's current accounts and trade are covered in the International Trade Report chapter, with dramatic pictures.
INDEX of Contents > > >
The chapters of this Grandfather Economic Report series are listed below, grouped by category - - comparing each subject's status today with prior generations - - by use of color pictures few have seen - - helping the visitor easily obtain the wisdom of the quote, "the farther 
back you look, the better you see ahead."
To protect data integrity of sources reported some graphics were not more recently updated due to possible changes to data definition criteria compared to the past. (see chapter > Statistical Revisionism). However, reported historic trend direction often can be projected forward a bit to lend insight for study, recognizing many historic trends as shown continue today, such as: soaring debt, continual dollar purchasing power losses, etc.
There are quite a few negative trends shown in the following picture-chapters, but don't get discouraged. While we celebrate the many positive things about our precious
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INDEX OF CONTENTS |
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All chapters are grouped by these Quick link categories: Summary - - Government - - Debt - - Economy - Energy - Inflation - - Family - Social Security - - Voting - Trust - - Tax - - International Trade, Exchange - - Education - - Health-care - - National Security - - Tribute - - Celebration - - Jokes - - What's New - - Action - - Links - - Reader Feedback - - Why this Report - - Search by word |
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CATEGORY |
- - CHAPTERS - - each chapter below includes color graphics & sources. |
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There are 3 summary sections of this series - - be sure to read the first - 1. SUMMARY of 4 Core Threats by PICTURES - - the main challenges > government size, education quality, soaring debt-dependence, foreign-dependence, and energy/national security - - each a potential threat to families and their children. A MUST READ 2 . The Road Traveled - mega trends - 200-year flow of history, from founding fathers to today - - legacy at a critical cross-road - to continue on current road or recapture the core principles of our nation's founders. |
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Government expansion is shown in picture reports below, which are designed to read in sequence. The first 2 should be read first to understand the big picture; next read the 2 chapters on federal expansion and state & local expansion for causes; next about regulations, trust funds and about an era that challenged prior decades, and finally about disturbing changes in economic reporting: 1. BIG-PICTURE: Total Government Expansion - When government officials say, 'the era of big government is over' - - citizens should ask, 'compared to what?' Three powerful & revealing graphics seldom seen, showing government expanding faster than the economy, squeezing down the share of the economy remaining to the private sector. A MUST READ. 2. EYE-OPENER: Trends of Government Spending & Debt - $6.5 trillion. 45% of the economy (national income) controlled by federal, state & local government spending, compared to 12% before - - now costing $19.218 per man, woman & child. 3. Federal Government Expansion Trends - Federal spending $4 trillion, or $12,338 per person - or 28% of the economy, compared to 3% before - spending trends by category - proof the culprit of debt and spending has been social spending, which increased 14 times faster than the economy, as trust in government and voter turn-out rates plummeted. A MUST READ. 4. State & Local Government Expansion Trends - explosive growth nation-wide to $2.5 trillion, or $7,987 per person - now 17% of the economic pie, compared to 6% post WW II. Most people know each working person today supports more seniors than prior generations, but few know each must also support more state & local government employees than ever before. Each year the number of these employees increases faster than the national population (40% faster since 1999), creating today's indicated excess of 12 million employees. A MUST READ. (also see companion report on one state- - as a template for evaluating your own state). 5. Regulatory Compliance Cost Impact Report - In addition to government spending, the cost of complying with government regulations is $6,610 per person - $2 Trillion - 17.5% of the economy - and there is zero budgetary control. (Nobel Laureate Dr. Milton Friedman continually stressed the importance of studying this critical area - in various letters to the author. How right he was!). Regulation compliance costs plus government spending consumes 63% of the economy, leaving just a 37% share to the free market economy. 6. Budget Deficits and Trust Fund Siphoning Report - How could nearly every politician in the 1990s claim a federal government surplus when debt went up to a new record each year? To date, all $4.6 trillion of surpluses of various trust funds have been siphoned-off (of which 76% was siphoned from the social security, federal employee pension and medical trusts) - - all spent on non-pension things and not counted in deficit calculations - an illegal act if done by private sector pension funds. (Some political leaders bragged to the general public "we ran more than $100 billion budget surplus in calendar year 1998 and 1999." They also said they wanted to 'save social security'. Listening to such rhetoric citizens might be misled-led to believe the federal government cut general spending to produce general government surpluses so as to save social security and reduce total debt. Fact: they ran an operational deficit (not a surplus) AND, each year since each ended with another increase in debt, to a record high. A MUST READ - including the 6 powerful trust fund articles articles, such as fraud of paying down debt and $70 trillion un-funded liabilities. 7. Taxes - (see tax category below) 8. Social Security - (see below) 9. National Security - (see below) 10. The Reagan Era Report - first time government expansion stopped in 4 decades, because of tax cuts - and first time trust in government surged in 2 decades. 11. Statistical Revisionism & Wizardry - a danger to a nation? Since the mid 1990s many statistical measurements of our economy (inflation, GDP, productivity) and education quality have been revised regarding criteria - each 'pumping-up' data as if the nation is on economic 'steroids.' Now, there is almost no clean comparison with the past, to accurately know where we are and where headed. 12 126-year Spending trend Compared to other nations - the |
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1. Debt Summary Table - a simple table summarizing all debt in Two chapters cover debt via color graphics - the first is Federal Government Debt only, the next for all debt (private + government) called 2. Federal Government Debt Report - at $19 trillion end calendar year 2016 - or $59,375 per man, woman and child - another in a constant string of new record highs. In the 1990s the federal government created $2.8 trillion of new debt; about the same created in the nation's entire history prior to 1990 - - and another $13 trillion since 2000. 3. America's Total Debt Report - this highly read report covers the most dangerous pictures, that of all debt in America (government debt plus all private debt, including debt of households, financial sector, and business) - now $69 Trillion at an all time high, and 80% of that total debt was created since 1990 - - showing America more debt-dependent than ever. During the financial crisis 2009-11 total debt stagnated as private sector debt fell due to foreclosures and write-offs, said fall off-set by frantic government spending and federal reserve bank money creations - then again accelerated an additional $3.7 trillion. Run-away debt is an accelerating major threat to the economy, to living standards and to national security. A nation cannot forever borrow its way to prosperity, especially borrowing from others. 4. Paying Down Debt? - some claim the government ran a surplus in the late 1990s and paid down debt, yet total federal debt increased each year - - meaning they ran operating deficits every year. So, where did they get the money? Answer: they siphoned-off trust fund surpluses to spend on other stuff and issued non-marketable IOUs with no redemption plan. |
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1. Inflation Report - 89% decline in buying power - 1,000% inflation my life-time - - inflation rates still higher than past and still above major foreign competitors - long-term CPI chart by old and new methods - housing up 1,300%. A MUST READ 2. Energy Report - Declining U.S. oil production & reserves, soaring consumption and imports oil & natural gas - - more dependent than ever on others. A very serious issue. A MUST READ 3. Productivity Report - picture of 49-year results, long-term downward trend despite recent up-turn following revision to measurement criteria. There are many reasons to ask: "What productivity?" 4. Family Savings - Americans have not saved so little since the depression of the 1930s, down 91% - a spending binge & household debt build-up well beyond income growth, despite the 1990s economic 'boom'. 5. Statistical Revisionism & Wizardry - a danger to a nation? Since the mid 1990s many statistical measurements of our economy (inflation, GDP, productivity) and education quality have been revised regarding criteria - each 'pumping-up' data as if the nation is on economic 'steroids.' Now, there is almost no clean comparison with the past, to accurately know where we are and where headed. 6. Manufacturing - 60% decline in ratio of manufacturing jobs, impacts median incomes and trade balances. 7. Financial Terrorism Against Seniors - - crushed incomes and international buying power. 8. Lawyers compared to other nations - It is interesting that the chart ranking of the nations regarding lawyer concentration correlates with the same ranking concerning trade competitiveness and inflation rates. The U.S. Dollar's Two-Step - - article > Devaluation of the dollar - - internally and internationally. Should we expect differently than the past? We can always hope our dollar-based savings and assets will be under pinned by a stronger dollar, both domestically and internationally, in the future than in the past. History, with such long-term negative trends in place, is a powerful teacher - - requiring uncommon "bravery" to bet against, wanting to believe that this time it will be different. |
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The chapters below provide color graphics showing impacts on working people: family incomes, social security, inflation history, savings, and a report celebrating progress: 1. Family Income Report - depressed inflation-adjusted income for 3 decades, despite economy consuming 2 wage-earners per family compared to one before - record low savings with record high household debt and yesterday's dollar worth less than 11 cents today. 64% of married mothers, with children below 6 years old, are in labor force - 6 times higher than before. Families will understand why it seems 'hard to get ahead.' Color pictures show the facts. A MUST READ. 2. Social Security Report - 5 times higher family tax rates than seniors paid - fewer benefits expected - while government consumed all $2.4 trillion trust fund surpluses to date on non-social security stuff. Dramatic color picture of approaching demographic bulge. Did politicians 'save social security' by siphoning-off all surpluses for non-pension spending? $99 trillion in un-funded contingent liabilities for social security & Medicare, and a cleaned-out trust fund. Now that the trust fund has been drained with zero commitment by either political party to pay back that which was siphoned-off, all of a sudden politicians cry about social security costs, never discussing why they do not make good the $2.4 trillion drained from its previous surplus trust fund. A MUST READ. 3. Social Security Trust Funds - today's workers pay much higher FICA tax rates than ever before, not just to cover current retirees but also paying extra to create a trust fund surplus for their own future - - yet every penny paid-in to create more than two trillion dollars in surplus has been siphoned-off and spent on non-pension things. Trust Fund articles that tell all. 4. Financial Terrorism Against Seniors - - crushed incomes and international buying power. 5. Inflation Report - (see above) 6. Generation Celebration Report - to balance various negative trends shown in other chapters, this sub-report shows some compelling improvements compared to prior generations, about which we can all celebrate - such as higher life expectancy. 7. Family Savings - Americans have not saved so little since the depression of the 1930s - down 91% - a spending binge & household debt build-up well beyond income growth, despite the 1990s economic 'boom'. 8. Taxes - (tax category below) 9. Household Debt - America's Total Debt Report - higher debt ratios, than ever before. 10. Health-care - - (health-care category below) |
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Voters |
Color graphics of trends regarding citizen support for government: 1. The Voting Turn-out Report - 40-years of declining citizen participation, despite record campaign spending and registration drives - record low turnout in 1996 & 2000 with 25 million missing voters compared to 1960 - a very serious issue for representative democracy. A MUST READ. 2. The 2000 Presidential Election Report - 4 dramatic graphics show how major population center voting nearly overwhelmed voting in 80% of the nation's counties. Is the power of the Constitution's mandate for the Electoral College weakening in its intent to give recognition to the greater diversity as prescribed by our founders? 3. The 2004 Presidential Election Report - 2 dramatic graphics show the results of the 2004 presidential elections. 4. Trust in Government Report - 69% do not trust - a massive increase in lack of trust from 3-decades ago - and 80% believe government has too much power - - troublesome for representative democracy and legitimacy of officials - long-term graphic. Evidence that trust in government plummets once consumptive social spending rises above 5% of national income - said ratio is now 3 times above that level, and trust is half of what it was. Latest poll shows citizen trust in ethics of elected officials, news professionals and lawyers decline to new low. A MUST READ. |
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1. Tax Report - Citizens now work more than 5 months each year just to pay all federal, state & local taxes - - many months more than prior generations. Families paid more inflation-adjusted taxes than ever before. A MUST READ. 2. Tax History Report - how far we have come from the intention of our founders. This article sketches the flow of taxation history. "To the Founding Fathers, the primary purpose was to block the central government from using the power of direct taxation - except in times of national emergency." 3. Social Security Drain Report - tax rates 5 times higher than seniors paid when working, with less benefit in return and a negative return for young workers - demonstrated via color pictures. |
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1. Foreign Trade Report - exploding negative trade balance to new records, now $15 billion/week - World's largest debtor nation, yet 4 times more dependent on global trade than before - Foreign interest own increasing percentage of our marketable debt - color graphics of long-term trends. Issue so serious that a U.S. Trade Deficit Commission was recently established, all members agreeing the situation is not sustainable nor is a solution seen. The 61% manufacturing base shrinkage in a major negative regarding trade balance, and a major negative impact on 2. International Value of the Dollar Report - color trend graphic shows long-term trend in international value. Will the 1997-2001 up-tick in the dollar prove temporary considering prior negative trends and today's exploding trade deficits? Seems so, as the dollar's exchange rate and foreign buying power of citizens plummet - down a whopping 43% vs. the Euro in the past several years. A MUST READ. 3. International Education Performance (education section below) - The Organization of Economic Cooperation & Development: "the effectiveness of 4. International Trends Government Spending-Dependence - this report contains a dramatic graphic of 126 year trend of the growth of government spending-dependence of the 5. The U.S. Dollar's Two-Step - - article > Devaluation of the dollar - - internally and internationally. Should we expect differently than the past? We can always hope our dollar-based savings and assets will be under pinned by a stronger dollar, both domestically and internationally, in the future than in the past. History, with such long-term negative trends in place, is a powerful teacher - - requiring uncommon "bravery" to bet against, wanting to believe that this time it will be different. THE U.S. DOLLAR'S TWO-STEP |
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1. The Education Report - a revealing chapter with color graphics comparing education quality & spending today vs. prior generations and to foreign students - - long-term 71% decline of the Education Productivity Index since quality declined while spending zoomed, yet class size shrank - - $44,000 waste per student - articles by economists, teachers, business leaders, students & parents - - implications of centralized power - negative correlation between quality & spending - less quality than 3 decades ago - error-laden textbooks and unacceptable math teaching methods - honors science texts less comprehensive than general readers 50 years ago - non-teaching employees increase faster than students - - colleges reduce standards to meet poor quality high school output, as 60% require remedial work. Two sub sections of the main Education Report above, (2) International Education Section shows clear differences, and (3) International Math & Science Test Series, show US students at the bottom of all nations in math & science. Parents need to understand and take control to better assure their children's future. A MUST READ. |
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Health Care: |
Health Care Report - graphics show we celebrate increased life-expectancy and quality care relative to our past, but it's less than achieved by other nations - yet we spend 82% more of our economy on health care than others, including higher government spending ratios. A MUST READ. |
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National Security Report - our founding fathers called national defense the #1 principal reason for establishing a federal government, yet we note a dramatic long-term down trend in defense spending ratios and much less war-time economic mobilization surge potential than was available for those who faced WW II. We have been surprised before, and may be again. A warning. A MUST READ. |
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1. Action Targets and Plan Report - a format to downsize Government SPENDING to a lower share of the economy and to reduce total government DEBT (both that owed to the public and that owed to trust funds) close to zero balances - - demonstrated by color graphics. 2. To-do List for Individuals & Families - concerning education quality, savings, and debt. Present your own prescription. |
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Tribute: |
1. A Tribute to Dr. Milton Friedman - a national treasure - with his comments on this Grandfather Economic Report series. 2. Famous Quotes of America's Founding Fathers - including, "The further backward you look, the further ahead you can see." 3. "Harry Gorman's Cleansing Shower". Tribute to a great 20th century economic poet, who feared economic trends threatened |
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Celebration: |
Generation Celebration Report - to balance various negative trends shown in other chapters, this sub-report shows some very compelling improvements compared to prior generations, about which we can all celebrate - such as higher life expectancy. |
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Feedback: |
1. Feedback samples from readers of the Grandfather Economic Report attest to accuracy and interest from all walks of life and many nations. - - from economists, professionals, teachers, parents and students. 2. Email to Michael Hodges, author of the Grandfather Economic Report series 3. About the Grandfather Economic Report, its author and data creditability |
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Other Links: |
Links to related sites - - excellent articles and sources. |
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What's New in the Grandfather Economic Report series - - short summary of new reports and updates. |
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Jokes: |
Grandfather Jokes Page - A time to smile. Question: Why did the chicken cross the road? Question: Could Noah build an ark today? Question: Why did |
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Search |
Search the Grandfather Economic Report series - - using Googol |
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Send E-Mail to your Congressman - click this link then on its next page type your ZIP code under the section 'Write elected officials.' Send a link to this page to others you think might benefit |
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I hope the above reports help expand your awareness & knowledge - and, make you even stronger |
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Knowledge is Power if you Seek It ! May each of us try harder to make our nation better -
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"By highlighting economic threats to our young, actions may result such that negative trends become positive trends - - and my generation can become more proud of our bequest to the next generation." Michael W. Hodges, author (email Michael). (About the Author contained within Tribute to Milton Friedman. Additional information about the author and about data creditability see Bio). WISE WORDS FROM A FOUNDING FATHER OF OUR GREAT NATION |
Michael Hodges welcomes questions, constructive input and links - email
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Copyright © 1997 ) Michael W. Hodges. The Grandfather Economic Report series is the intellectual property of its author; all rights reserved under Copyright Conventions. Permission to redistribute all or part of this series for non commercial purposes is granted by the author, provided the associated web page address (URL) is included and full credit given to the Grandfather Economic Report and the author, Michael Hodges, with notice via email.
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