Question: HOW MUCH DO AMERICANS TRUST GOVERNMENT??

Answer: NOT VERY MUCH

While visitors should form their own views of this chart, the following comments are included to stimulate thought.

As will be shown later, trust and voter turnout decline when social spending and regulatory cost ratios and debt rise. Also impacting trust is the handling and/or justification of war, as seen in Viet Nam and Iraq.

The rising trend up to the early 1960s shown by the chart demonstrates that Americans trusted the government far more than now - - 100% MORE !!

The Vietnam years and the failure of the Johnson era's war on poverty, dealt terrible blows to patriotic idealism. Watergate damaged faith in government, and the rising inflation & interest rates, Soviet pressures plus international terrorism & hostage-taking of the 1970s destroyed faith in its competence.

The chart shows plummeting trust in government from the middle 1960s all the way to 1980.

Then came President Reagan's up-beat, patriotic anti-communism and his stand-down/defeat of the Soviet Union, the resolution of the hostage situation, lowering of severe interest and inflation rates, as well as the tax-cutting tonic applied to the economy, caused trust to rise strongly (70%) from 1980-86. (see the Reagan Era Report).

Trust slipped back again during the Bush-1 era, perhaps in response to the deficit which showed the lack of clear actions to reduce spending to complement tax cuts. Then came the Bush 'flip-flop' on 'read my lips' as the largest tax increase in history was enacted.

It reached a historic low point by 1994 during the first half of the Clinton era, perhaps in response to increased social agendas being pushed (such as a national healthcare program), including an even larger tax increase than in the Bush era. Citizens were experiencing what appeared to be another ratchet-upward in social agendas, as seen during the Johnshon era in the late 1960s. Then, in 1994, the Republicans won a mid-term landslide by campaigning against big government.

The up-tick in trust in government starting in 1996 follows a more conservative Congress moving on spending, balanced budget and tax cut agendas.

Additionally, President Clinton in his 1996 state-of-the-union speech appeared to recognize the anti-social spending wish of citizens as he declared 'the era of big government is over' - although the Government Growth Report proved otherwise, with the federal government's controlling share of the economy nearly 8 times more than it had been before WW II. 1997 witnessed the Congress and President passing a balanced budget plan, tax cuts, and an 'end of welfare as we know it' bill (and welfare rolls begin to drop). For 1998 a budget surplus was claimed by politicians, although few citizens recognized this so-called surplus was not a surplus of the general government but was 'achieved' by siphoning-off record surpluses from trust funds such as social security (see Trust Fund and Deficit Report) - - such camouflage cannot be kept from citizens forever.

Bush-2's first term showed a rising trust early on due to hoped confidence to properly respond to the terror attacks in 2001, only to be followed by a significant plunge due to justification and handling of the war in Iraq promoting exploding federal debt.

The 2nd & 3rd year of the Obama term, distrust exploded to 76% (Pew Research April 2010 and down to 80% by early 2011). This record low was fueled by soaring federal government debt to accommodate bail-outs, unemployment and home foreclosures resulting from an on-going major financial crisis - and a major fight to raise the debt ceiling again and again in the face of runaway spending and debt generation of the federal government - - as well as the growing feeling the nation is moving in the wrong direction toward more, not less, government control fueled by more and more unapayable debt.

The above 53-year history suggests the majority of Americans are conservative and for limited government & debt, and opposed to the opposite - - similar to the philosophy suggested by our founding forefathers:
1) Declining and low citizen trust ratios mean citizens are granting less legitimacy & approval to government) in response to 'big government with social spending' agendas, and
2) Rising and higher trust ratios mean citizens are granting more legitimacy & approval in response to 'smaller government with reduced social spending' agendas.

After the terrorist attacks on America on Sept. 11, 2001, it was presumed trust in government would increase as all rally around government to 'save them' - - and the above chart's 2002 data point shows this increase did occur.   However, since the major reason for forming a federal government (as outlined by our nation's founding forefathers) was national security, and 9-11 was a massive federal government failure in this regard, time will tell how future trust in government plays out. (despite the post 9-11 rally-around response, 8 months later the Washington Post reported 5/30/2002 "The post-Sept. 11 romance between the public and the federal government is fading fast - already down 18 points." - www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36238-2002May30.html ). As government expands its power and influence, and spending & debt under the cover of 'anti-terrorism' - - such can eventually lead to even less trust. Additionally, the chapter, 'National Security', raises significant challenges looking forward.

That trust gain recorded in the above chart for 2002 following 9-11 dropped in 2004 as the Iraq war got underway, and trust in government has dramatically eroded since then according to the below 2006 poll.

The very low levels of trust today suggest significantly less legitimacy to government size, emphasis and debt, and a call for significant reductions in same. As will be seen in the 'Notice' below, size reductions are needed in the social spending components of government - - perhaps a 2/3rd reduction.

NOTICE:

The above declining trust in government chart follows similar plummeting trend lines of the chart in the Voter Turnout Report , where said turnout reached a historic low - - with 20 million fewer voters compared to the 1960 turnout ratio.

Further, it compares to the graphics showing growth in the size of government, relative to the share of the economy, as government (federal, state & local) has grown in size faster than the economy - especially its social spending component.

And, most amazingly, the trends in trust follow almost exactly the federal components spending chart in the Grandfather Federal Government Report, showing social spending growth 10 times faster than the general economy. Trust in government plummets once social spending ratios rose above 3-5% of national income (as it did in mid 1960s). Today's social spend ratio is 3 times higher than this 5% - meaning it consumes as a minimum 3 times more of the economy than citizens trust as being appropriate.

Trust in government trends also follow the trends in the increased share of the economy involving compliance costs mandated by government regulations.

Additionally, the declining trends of trust in government also follow the declining trends of the education quality-cost productivity index shown in the Education Report.

As another example impacting trust today: Trust in government will not be improved as more citizens become aware that those bragging about balancing the federal budget have evaded telling the full truth - on purpose. To camouflage the size of the federal budget deficit, all surplus funds (intended for future pensions) are siphoned-off by the general government for non-pension spending - - an illegal practice if done in the private sector. (see the current status in the Budget Deficit and Trust Fund Siphon Report). This certainly is a negative concerning citizen trust in government.

All $800 billion of the extra FICA collected to date from working people intended as trust fund surpluses for the future has been siphoned-off by the government and spent on non-pension things, including $109 billion in just the past fiscal year. Some report the unannounced plan is to siphon-off and consume another $2.5 trillion between now and 2012 when the trust fund's outflows for seniors exceed inflows. Politicians are not earning public trust by presuming all citizens are too stupid to be misled forever.

State & local governments are increasing their power each year, as their employees grow in numbers faster than the general population - reaching a historic high ratio last year.

The STATISTICAL REVISIONISM AND WIZARDRY Report is another example of how government can create mistrust, such as by revising education quality and economic measuring criteria that always seems to be in one direction, which is to pump-up the data to make if 'feel better.'

CLEARLY, all is not well concerning America's representative democracy and the respect of its citizens for government.

With such low public trust, government officials & politicians have less legitimacy to represent, and act for American citizens than ever before.

And, as Ronald Reagan often said, "Trust but verify."

May actions be taken to significantly increase America's trust in government - by the most obvious action to significantly downsize and restructure federal AND state & local government to a much smaller percentage of our economy, especially in the social arena - - and closer to and not exceeding the 4 main principal reasons for government outlined by our founding forefathers.

We owe it to our nation's founders, and to our young generation.

Michael Hodges - michael-hodges@comcast.net